Climate Change Impacts and Mitigation

As the climate gets warmer globally, Africa will be drier and have less rainfall in the winter months.  Any change to the tropical cyclone movement and ocean temperatures will affect the rainfall location and might decrease it as well.  Centennial time-scale feedbacks associated with vegetation patterns for the continent may make the climate changes less reversible.  Most MMD models overestimate the precipitation in southern Africa.  The models mostly focus on southern Africa.

It is predicted that in 2020 between 75-250 million people will be exposed to increased water stress and with the increased demand.  The agriculture in Africa will be severely compromised by the climate change.  It could be reduced by 50% by 2020.  Fishing will decrease due to a decrease of resources.  Rising water levels are predicted to degrade coral reefs and mangroves.  Africa is confirmed to be one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change.

Africa is very vulnerable and will face many stresses.  Farmers have made adaptions for the changing climate, but it won't be enough for future changes.  Water will be a crucial resource that will be very limited in the future.  Human health could be further negatively impacted by climate change.

The most interesting threat is depletion of resources.  I choose this threat because it will affect the lives of all who live in Africa and once the resources become too scarce, they will have to move somewhere else to survive.  There might be a huge migration of people from Africa in search of better resources, but might face problems of moving to another continent because of the other continent's limitations of resources.  I feel that if this happens, then there will be no food for anyone as the demand for resources increases.  We need to quickly find a sustainable way of acquiring resources and keep changes to the land to a minimum.

Severe Weather in South Africa

Tornadoes
Tornadoes form when winds at different altitudes and at different speeds, which create a wind sheer that causes a horizontal rotation of air.  A formation of a mesocyclone is also needed to form tornadoes.  Tornadoes in the United States usually travel North-West.  This is the dominant direction because of the Westerlies.  Tornadoes can form in South Africa as well.

The average number of tornadoes in the United States is about 1000.
Website:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html

The average number of tornadoes in South Africa is about 1000 as well.
Website:  http://www.enca.com/opinion/blog-post/tornadoes-south-africa

South Africa falls in the low to moderate risk of having tornadoes.

It seems that tornadoes have increased over time, but that might not be true because since technology is advancing, we have had more chances to record the occurrences of tornadoes.

Hurricanes

Three main requirements for hurricanes to form are ocean temperatures over 80 degrees Fahrenheit, deep warm ocean layer of 200 m in depth, and the Coriolis needs to initiate the rotation.

Hurricanes form in the tropics and occurs in the United States, East Asia, Australia, South Africa and India.  They are called Hurricanes in the Atlantic and East Pacific, Cyclones in the Indian Ocean near Australia and Typhoons off the coast of China and Indonesia.

In the United States, hurricanes usually travel in a "C" path due to the change in latitude and wind directions.  East to West.

South Africa experiences some cyclones.  United States have an average of 7-8 hurricanes per year.

Website:  http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/hurrarchive.asp

Daily Weather in Cape Town

South Africa's Capital City is Cape Town and my 5-day forecast will cover March 21, 22, 23, 24, and 25.  For March 21st, the high is forecasted to be 81 degrees Fahrenheit and the low will be 60 with a 0% chance of precipitation.  The 22nd is forecasted to have a high of 76 and a low of 59 with a 10% chance.  March 23rd is forecasted to have a high of 72 and a low of 59 with a 40% chance of precipitation.  March 24th is expected to have a high of 67 and a low of 56 with 40% chance of precipitation.  The 25th is forecasted to have a high of 66 and a low of 57 with another 40% chance of precipitation.

It is clear skies for Cape Town.  The area is mostly dry with trees, but has parks with lots of green grass and there are bird sanctuaries.  Lake Sandvlei is surrounded by houses and a bird sanctuary. Another lake is Zeekoevlei.  In the center of Cape Town there is a castle called the Castle of Good Hope and is mostly industrialized.

On the continent, there are 3 highs and 2 lows.  Isobar pressures that are observed are 1012mb, 1016 mb, 1020mb, and 1024mb.  The pressures are located towards the top and bottom of Africa.  There are mostly high pressures located out in the ocean.

In South Africa, there are 3 high pressures and 1 low pressure.  The low pressure is 1012mb and the 3 highs are at 1016mb and 1020mb.  One high pressure is just of the coast of South Africa.  A cold front is out in the ocean as well heading towards Madagascar.  

Global and Local Winds in South Africa

The latitude and longitude of South Africa is 30 degrees S and 25 degrees E in the Southern Hemisphere.  South Africa resides in the mid-latitude cell.  The Westerlies blow for South Africa and the prevailing wind direction is NW.  An anticyclone, which is a High pressure system, travels over the country during April.  The Horse Latitudes are located near South Africa.  The 30 degrees S is the line for the Horse Latitudes and South Africa lines up with it.

Global Wind Patterns (wiki)

Because of the wind patterns of Westerlies and the anticyclone, South Africa tends to be warm and due to the latitude of 30 degrees S, it has a desert and is very hot and dry.  The anticyclone makes the area very sunny with little clouds so it gets hot in the day time.

South Africa has mountains and winds associated with mountains are mountain breezes, katabatic winds, anabatic winds, foehn winds and valley breezes.  I think that South Africa can experience all of those types of winds depending on the weather and season.  There is a coastline and the breezes are land and sea breezes.  South Africa can experience both.

Typical Weather and Tourism in South Africa

In South Africa, the Winter Solstice occurs in June on the 21st-22nd.  The day it falls on changes every year.  During the month of June, the average maximum temperature is 75 degrees Fahrenheit.  The average minimum temperature of June is 46 degrees Fahrenheit.  It is likely that snow will occur on the Winter Solstice.

The Summer Solstice occurs on December 21st-22nd.  This year it will fall on the 21st.  The average maximum temperature is 86 degrees Fahrenheit.  The average minimum temperature is 72 degrees Fahrenheit.  It is likely to rain during the Summer Solstice. 

The Spring Equinox occurs on September 22nd-23rd.  This year it will fall on the 23rd.  The average maximum temperature is 84 degrees Fahrenheit.  The average minimum temperature is 61 degrees Fahrenheit.  It is likely to rain, but not much.

The Autumnal Equinox occurs on March 20th.  The average maximum temperature is 86 degrees Fahrenheit.  The average minimum temperature is 70 degrees Fahrenheit.  It is likely to rain.

If you plan to visit South Africa, I recommend going in the spring.  When it is spring, there are vast amounts of flowers blooming especially in the cape areas.  The temperature is not too hot and their isn't that much rain that if you plan to go hiking you will have a lot of nice days to go.  It is sunny and there are no weather hazards during this time.  Thunderstorms happen during the summer.  So visit South Africa in the spring and embrace yourself with nature's miracles.

Spring Flowers (panoramio.com)

South Africa has 3 capital cities.  I will focus on Cape Town.  It has ocean currents as a temperature control.  The geographic location gives it a Mediterranean climate mostly.  The latitude and longitude is 33.9253 degrees S, 18.4239 degrees E.  The warmest month in Cape Town is February and an average monthly temperature of 69.9 degrees F.  The coldest month in Cape Town is July and an average monthly temperature of 54.1 degrees F (World Climates). The annual range of temperature is 15.8 degrees F.

One of the temperature controls for Cape Town is ocean currents.  It is located on the coast of the country and experiences ocean breezes.  The two main currents that Cape Town is affected by are the Agulhas current and the Benguela current.  Agulhas is a warm current and Benguela is a cold current.  The currents keep the temperature mild. A temperature control that does not affect Cape Town is elevation.  It is not high enough to be affected by the change of pressure and air density.

I think that South Africa will not be affected too much in the future in climate.  The ocean currents will help keep the temperature mild and might just get a little bit hotter.